Russia’s Oreshnik (“Hazel”) Missile: A Strategic and Mysterious Development by Pat Harrington

736 words, 4 minutes read time.

Russia’s Oreshnik missile, known colloquially as “Hazel,” is a recent addition to its advanced arsenal, categorized as an intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM). Officially unveiled during a high-profile strike on a Ukrainian facility in Dnipro in November 2024, the Oreshnik has captured global attention for its sophisticated design and strategic implications. Here’s what is known about the missile, its usage, and the speculation surrounding its deployment and stockpile.

The Missile’s Capabilities

The Oreshnik is reported to be a hypersonic missile capable of reaching speeds exceeding Mach 10 (12,300 km/h or 7,610 mph), with a range of up to 5,500 kilometers. This range enables it to strike targets across most of Europe and parts of the United States.

One of its distinguishing features is its use of multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles (MIRVs). This capability allows the missile to carry several warheads, each capable of striking different targets simultaneously. Such a feature significantly enhances its strike potential and complicates interception efforts by existing missile defense systems. Analysts suggest that the Oreshnik may be a modified version of the RS-26 Rubezh intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), designed to reduce its range to fit within the IRBM classification.

Limited Deployment

As of now, the Oreshnik missile has been confirmed to be used operationally only once, during the November 21, 2024 strike on the Pivdenmash facility in Dnipro, Ukraine. Speculation as to why it has been used so sparingly centers on several key factors:

1. Developmental Stage: The Oreshnik is likely still in the testing and evaluation phase. Limited deployment allows Russia to assess the missile’s performance and identify any necessary refinements before broader use.
2. Strategic Signaling: The single use could serve as a demonstration of capability, intended to deter adversaries by showcasing advanced weaponry without requiring frequent deployment. By doing so, Russia underscores its technological advancements while conserving its stockpile.
3. Resource Constraints: Developing hypersonic missiles like the Oreshnik is resource-intensive. Russia’s production capacity is believed to be limited, prompting the selective use of these weapons to ensure availability for critical situations.
4. Geopolitical Considerations: Frequent use of such advanced weaponry risks escalating tensions with other nations and provoking severe international condemnation or sanctions. Restricting its use may help manage these risks.

Production and Stockpile Estimates

While exact numbers are undisclosed, Ukrainian intelligence estimates that Russia has the capacity to produce up to 25 Oreshnik missiles per month, potentially leading to an annual output of around 300 missiles. However, these figures are speculative and dependent on factors such as resource availability and manufacturing capabilities.

Even if production capacity allows for these numbers, the current active stockpile of Oreshnik missiles remains unknown. It is plausible that Russia is prioritizing production to bolster its strategic capabilities, given the missile’s advanced technology and potential to reshape the intermediate-range ballistic missile landscape.

Strategic Context and Propaganda

According to The Moscow Times, the medium-range missile strike was part of a propaganda campaign orchestrated by the Russian military and intelligence services to intimidate Western leadership and populations. The operation was reportedly a response to Ukraine being permitted to use long-range missiles against Russian targets, with the ultimate aim of coercing the West into yielding to Moscow’s demands.

Military expert Mathieu Boulegue of Chatham House (UK) stated that while the Oreshnik missile does not alter the dynamics on the battlefield, it effectively serves the Kremlin’s purpose of intimidating Western audiences. Similarly, James J. Townsend, a senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security, interpreted the missile’s deployment as Russia’s expression of dissatisfaction with the use of Western-produced long-range missiles by Ukraine. Townsend also described it as a message to Ukraine and the incoming U.S. President, Donald Trump, signaling that Russia remains committed to pursuing its objectives regardless of Western support for Ukraine.

Strategic Implications

The Oreshnik missile represents a significant step forward in Russia’s hypersonic and ballistic missile capabilities. Its combination of speed, range, and MIRV technology makes it a formidable addition to its arsenal. However, its sparse deployment raises questions about its readiness, production constraints, and the broader strategy behind its use.

For now, the Oreshnik remains a symbol of Russia’s ambitions in modern warfare, combining cutting-edge technology with strategic posturing. Its future deployments will be closely watched by global powers, as they could offer further insights into Russia’s military intentions and its ability to operationalize advanced weaponry on a larger scale.

Sources

1.  Reporter, Moscow Times (3 December 2024). “Exclusive: Kremlin Stages Oreshnik Propaganda Blitz as Nuclear Threats Lose Their Potency”. The Moscow Times. Retrieved 4 December 2024.
2.  “Russia has used its hypersonic Oreshnik missile for the first time. What are its capabilities?”. AP News. 9 December 2024. Retrieved 9 December 2024.

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